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原油期貨價格的影響因素 2023年原油價格成本
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你知道原油期貨價格的影響因素有哪些嗎？2023年原油價格成本是多少？
SC → （ Brent + Dubai swap / Brent EFS + Freight + other Fees）* Exchange rate，這就是我國上海原油期貨價格的成本價格。
影響原油期貨價格SC/Brent spread的因素有：
1、Macro economy 宏觀經濟
2、Quality spread 品質價差
3、Tanker freight 物流運費
4、Exchange rate 匯率
5、Warehouse Warrant & other factors 倉單及其他
If all influencing factors indicate the same direction, Best time to trade!
當所有因素影響方向共振時可能產生較好的交易機會
Although global crude oil price are highly correlated, different crude oil futures reflect base country fundamental characteristics. Macro economy is the underlying driver for commodity demand, which influences the price difference. For example,
SC/Brent futures spread show very similar pattern with China/US PMI difference.
雖然全球原油價格高度聯動，局部供需進展會影響不同地區之間的價差。
宏觀經濟是油品需求的根本驅動，從而影響價格差異。
例如，SC和Brent原油期貨價差與中美PMI差異體現出高度相關性。
SC is quoted in RMB and Brent is quoted in USD, thus SC/Brent price ratio reflects
the exchange rate change. One arbitrage strategy is the statistical regression
between SC/Brent ratio and RMB/USD exchange rate, which works well in some
periods such as 2018-2019. However, if some major fundamental shift occurs such
as 2020 and 2022, other factors may dominate the spread change as well.
由于計價貨幣差異，SC/Brent 比價較大程度體現人民幣兌美元匯率變化。長期來看內外比價圍繞匯率波動，
因此可以進行統計套利交易。但是當基本面發生重大變化時，如其他因素主導價差，可能導致策略短期失效。
Economy and forex influence SC/Brent spread from the financial aspects, while
quality difference is the crude oil specific industry component. The underlying
products of SC are medium sour crude oil, while Brent is light sweet crude oil, thus
the spread should reflect the quality difference between light – heavy spread, which
can be characterized by Brent-Dubai spread known as EFS (Exchange for swap).
Brent – Dubai spread （USD/Barrel） Saudi crude Official Selling Price (OSP) to Asia
(Light – Heavy crude)
由于SC是中質含硫原油，Brent是輕質低硫原油，因此品質價差會影響SC和Brent價格關系，可以通過
Brent-Dubai價差進行表征。過去二十年間該價差通常在0-5美元/桶區間運行，但2020年疫情和2022年地緣
沖突等特殊情形下，可能導致價差的大幅波動。
SC reflects the destination price of middle east crude oil, thus the price difference
also needs to include the physical trading cost, such as freight. In most of time,
crude tanker freight is relatively stable, however under special cases such as 2020,
which may result in large fluctuation of the freight.
除了Brent和Dubai的品質價差外，由于SC反映的是中國到岸價格，因此從中東到中國的物流運費也會影響
兩地價差。原油海運費用通常較為穩定，特殊事件如2020年疫情期間可能造成運費大幅波動。
Because SC is physical delivered, so the price in the last trading days also reflects
the amount of deliverable inventory in the warehouse, which is reported as
warehouse standard warrant. If the warehouse inventory is high, SC maybe weaker
than Brent; and vice versa.
經濟和匯率是宏觀影響因素，品質價差和物流費用是行業影響因素，期貨倉單影響則是來自SC合約特性。
在臨近交割窗口期，倉單庫存數量可能影響到SC相對強度。倉單越少，對SC相對價格支撐越強；反之亦然。
SC → （ Brent + Dubai swap / Brent EFS + Freight + other Fees）* Exchange rate，這就是我國上海原油期貨價格的成本價格。
影響原油期貨價格SC/Brent spread的因素有：
1、Macro economy 宏觀經濟
2、Quality spread 品質價差
3、Tanker freight 物流運費
4、Exchange rate 匯率
5、Warehouse Warrant & other factors 倉單及其他
If all influencing factors indicate the same direction, Best time to trade!
當所有因素影響方向共振時可能產生較好的交易機會
Although global crude oil price are highly correlated, different crude oil futures reflect base country fundamental characteristics. Macro economy is the underlying driver for commodity demand, which influences the price difference. For example,
SC/Brent futures spread show very similar pattern with China/US PMI difference.
雖然全球原油價格高度聯動，局部供需進展會影響不同地區之間的價差。
宏觀經濟是油品需求的根本驅動，從而影響價格差異。
例如，SC和Brent原油期貨價差與中美PMI差異體現出高度相關性。
SC is quoted in RMB and Brent is quoted in USD, thus SC/Brent price ratio reflects
the exchange rate change. One arbitrage strategy is the statistical regression
between SC/Brent ratio and RMB/USD exchange rate, which works well in some
periods such as 2018-2019. However, if some major fundamental shift occurs such
as 2020 and 2022, other factors may dominate the spread change as well.
由于計價貨幣差異，SC/Brent 比價較大程度體現人民幣兌美元匯率變化。長期來看內外比價圍繞匯率波動，
因此可以進行統計套利交易。但是當基本面發生重大變化時，如其他因素主導價差，可能導致策略短期失效。
Economy and forex influence SC/Brent spread from the financial aspects, while
quality difference is the crude oil specific industry component. The underlying
products of SC are medium sour crude oil, while Brent is light sweet crude oil, thus
the spread should reflect the quality difference between light – heavy spread, which
can be characterized by Brent-Dubai spread known as EFS (Exchange for swap).
Brent – Dubai spread （USD/Barrel） Saudi crude Official Selling Price (OSP) to Asia
(Light – Heavy crude)
由于SC是中質含硫原油，Brent是輕質低硫原油，因此品質價差會影響SC和Brent價格關系，可以通過
Brent-Dubai價差進行表征。過去二十年間該價差通常在0-5美元/桶區間運行，但2020年疫情和2022年地緣
沖突等特殊情形下，可能導致價差的大幅波動。
SC reflects the destination price of middle east crude oil, thus the price difference
also needs to include the physical trading cost, such as freight. In most of time,
crude tanker freight is relatively stable, however under special cases such as 2020,
which may result in large fluctuation of the freight.
除了Brent和Dubai的品質價差外，由于SC反映的是中國到岸價格，因此從中東到中國的物流運費也會影響
兩地價差。原油海運費用通常較為穩定，特殊事件如2020年疫情期間可能造成運費大幅波動。
Because SC is physical delivered, so the price in the last trading days also reflects
the amount of deliverable inventory in the warehouse, which is reported as
warehouse standard warrant. If the warehouse inventory is high, SC maybe weaker
than Brent; and vice versa.
經濟和匯率是宏觀影響因素，品質價差和物流費用是行業影響因素，期貨倉單影響則是來自SC合約特性。
在臨近交割窗口期，倉單庫存數量可能影響到SC相對強度。倉單越少，對SC相對價格支撐越強；反之亦然。
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